TALKING BREXIT: A DISMANTLED EUROPEAN UNION, OR A DISMANTLED UNITED KINGDOM?
CHRISTINE AN, CHRISTINE CHO, JAMES DENNIS AND SABINE JOHNSON
May 6th, 2020
Brexit, Negxit, Italeave or Frexit?
In June 2016, the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union caused shock waves across the globe. Hasty plans to follow suit were made by right-leaning parties across Europe: Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch anti-immigrant party, called for a referendum; France’s far right leader tweeted that #Frexit was coming; Matteo Salvini, the leader of Italy’s Northern League, the opposition centre-right party, said that Italy was next [1]. But the quick exit that Britain hoped for was drawn out over three long years and the initially inspired responses were extinguished by a painfully slow pathway to the exit.
Despite several prominent voices expressing dissatisfaction with low economic growth and the increasingly popular anti-immigration, pro-decentralisation sentiments echoing throughout the country, Britain’s exit from the Union has instead changed the playing field. [2]. Theresa May’s disastrous attempts at navigating the policy and legal issues that resulted from the exit has led to a shift for many Europeans, with a new poll showing that 67% of Europeans believed that their countries benefitted from the EU membership [3]. Interestingly, this is the highest figure since 1985. This begs the question— why?
The obvious answer is the sheer difficulty that leaving the EU entails. There was no clear pathway for Britain’s exit, and even after the exit has officially been finalised, several important issues still need to be worked through: law enforcement, data sharing, supplies of essentials such as gas and electricity, and importantly, a trade deal to ensure the tariff and quota-free goods between the UK and EU[4]. No one really knows what this means for Britons in Europe or Europeans in Britain either. And with COVID-19’s serious impact on Europe (and especially the UK), the repercussions of Brexit are yet to be fully realised. Perhaps, therefore, that uncertainty will have one of two effects: bringing the EU closer together or forming further cracks.
This blog will discuss three significant features of Brexit and its implications. First, it will consider what’s next for Brexit now that a deal has been reached. Secondly, it will discuss what Brexit means for the United Kingdom and for Scotland. Finally, this blog will discuss how Brexit has been impacted by the coronavirus.
Brexit has finally happened - So what’s next?
The UK officially left the European Union on January 31st 2020. In doing so, it was the first EU member state to withdraw from the block. However, despite Boris Johnson’s protestations, Brexit is far from “done” [5]. Indeed, the future EU-UK relationship will be discussed over the transition period until at least the end of 2020 [6]. Meanwhile, the UK will largely comply with the EU rules. It will remain in the EU’s single market and customs union and will continue to pay into the Union’s budget. This will allow the people, goods, capital and services in the region to continue to move freely across the bloc [7].
The EU has repeatedly said that the 11-month transition period will not be enough to negotiate an agreement covering every detail of its future relationship with the UK. Therefore, a free trade agreement (FTA) will be prioritised, with the objective being zero-quota, zero tariff trade in goods [8]. Reaching this agreement will not be straightforward, as the EU will only agree if the UK pledges not to ‘outcompete’ them.
The decision made regarding the FTA will have an impact on Australia as well. The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFAT) of Australia expects Brexit will allow Australia to negotiate new FTAs with the UK – in relation to agricultural exports in particular [9]. This is because Australia’s market access to the UK (in terms of agricultural products) has historically been limited due to the EU regulations prior to Brexit [10].
As the UK is the first member state to depart from the EU, it is difficult to predict how long it will take to finalise the UK-EU future relationship agreement/s. However, due to the large number of issues to be negotiated, it is expected that lots of work will be left unfinished even after the transition period has elapsed. Whilst Johnson has repeatedly insisted that the UK will not extend the transition period, there is one clear priority: avoiding the economic shock of ending the transition period without a trade deal [11].
What about Scotland?
One country which stands to be most greatly affected by Brexit is Great Britain’s northernmost dominion – Scotland. Having established a formal political union with the Kingdom of England in 1707 – an affiliation that would eventually expand and become today’s United Kingdom – Scotland withdrew from the EU earlier this year. However, this wasn’t without significant opposition. In 2016, the people of Scotland voted overwhelmingly (62%) in favour of remaining a part of the EU, and the nation’s politicians have largely maintained the view that continued EU membership is in the country’s best interests [12]. As a result, significant tensions have emerged that threaten the survival of the United Kingdom, with some Scots “wondering if that UK union is worth saving anymore”[13].
On the back of extensive campaigning for Scottish independence and ongoing affiliation with the EU, the Scottish National Party (SNP) has emerged as the country’s most dominant political party. In 2014, a referendum was held in which 55% of the population voted against Scotland becoming an independent country. However, Brexit has injected significant disruption into the political and economic landscape in which this decision was reached. The 2019 UK election – cast by many commentators as a second referendum on Brexit – saw the SNP record a landslide victory, making an 8.1% gain in overall vote share since 2017, a result which lends further support to the notion that the Scottish people are largely against the idea of leaving the EU [14].
Could Brexit, then, be the decisive factor that shifts public opinion in Scotland towards breaking away from the United Kingdom and establishing itself as an independent nation? On one hand, trade and movement of people between Scotland and England is significantly higher than between Scotland and the rest of the EU[8], something that would certainly be compromised by a departure from the United Kingdom. On the other, the EU affords significant advantages to Scotland in terms of the export of goods – protections which, if taken away, could have significantly detrimental effects on the Scottish [15].
Scotland, then, is faced with an immediate future full of doubt and hypothetical deliberation. A potential choice between the United Kingdom and the European Union looms, with either path posing significant uncertainties and risks. Of course, only time will tell how these circumstances will play out. However, if the Scots have shown us one thing, it is that they will fight until the end to be the masters of their own fate.
The impacts of coronavirus on Brexit: the future of healthcare
With the entire world’s attention zeroed in on the spread of the coronavirus, the spotlight on Brexit has consequently dimmed in the minds of many Brits. However, despite this, the pandemic has unexpectedly shed new light on some troubling concerns regarding Brexit and Britain’s healthcare that have long been simmering since 2016’s referendum. One of the most notable concerns surrounds staffing in the medical profession.
It is reported that across the National Health Service, there is currently a severe shortage of medical staff including nurses, doctors, and other health professionals [16]. Britain relies heavily on foreign doctors, with approximately 35% of the nation’s doctors born abroad [17], and the economic impact stemming from the current health crisis, in conjunction with the potential fall in the value of the pound following Brexit, could lead to major migration [18]. Not only that, but tighter control of immigration and higher barriers to obtaining work visas could also further hinder the health department’s ability to acquire necessary manpower.
For many countries, COVID-19 has stretched their health care systems to their breaking points, as patients have continued to file into hospitals that are already too full. Doctors and nurses are overworked, face masks are running low and all of this is happening without any repercussions stemming from the detachment from a major economic union.
As the transition period is expected to extend indefinitely with the government now facing the logistical challenge of video conference discussions [19], it will be more important than ever for the UK to picture how its future response to pandemics will look after Brexit. While nothing is set in stone, the government will need to consider a healthcare crisis at the worst, and must rigorously prepare for coordination challenges up ahead.
Conclusion
If there is one major takeaway from this blog, it is that Brexit has never had a clear or certain path at any stage since its announcement. The outbreak of COVID-19 – which has hit the UK particularly hard – will only put further pressure on the British government to make important and risky decisions about the British economy and future. Coronavirus has showed the world that sticking together in these times is crucial – and although several countries expressed dissatisfaction with the EU when Brexit was first announced, it is highly possible that coronavirus will be the glue that holds the EU together and leaves the UK with its tail between its legs.
[1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-outers-all-idUSKCN0ZA2LP
[3] Ibid.
[4] https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/jan/27/brexit-explained-how-it-happened-and-what-comes-next
[6] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51307874
[8] Ibid
[12] https://www.gov.scot/brexit/
[13] https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/08/scottish-independence-and-brexit/595234/
[14] https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50766014
[15] https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/08/scottish-independence-and-brexit/595234/
[16] https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/articles/brexit-implications-health-social-care#staffing
[18] https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/articles/brexit-implications-health-social-care#staffing
[19] https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/03/26/brexit-is-not-immune-to-coronavirus/